Рэймонд Мэрриман: Ежедневный комментарий ММА по рынкам и рекомендации трейдерам

MMA DAILY UPDATE FOR
WEDNESDAY, JULY 29, 2009

DJIA CASH: Tuesday’s low was below daily support and the close was back above, which is a bullish trigger. And the close was above the daily trend indicator point for the 12th consecutive day, which means it remains in a trend run up. A close below 9078 will downgrade it back to neutral. Daily support is 9027-9038. A close below 9027 will be bearish, while a trade above followed by a close back below will be a bearish trigger. Daily resistance is 9145-9155. A close above 9155 is bullish, whereas a trade above followed by a close back below this zone is a bearish trigger. Bullish crossover zones remain in effect at 8926-8954, 8774-8794, 8385-8484, 8189-8231, 7380-7525, 7004-7014 and 6643-6736. Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 9391-9460, 10,676-10,707, 10,752-10,994, 11,964-11,995, 12,415-12,494, 12,949-12,951, 13,188-13,219, 13,460-13,517, 13,616-13,662 and 13,755-13,833. We were looking for a sharp 2-8 day corrective decline and it started out that way, falling below daily support and the daily trend indicator. But then it shot back up and closed with a bullish trigger, perhaps in response to encouraging comments by the possible next Fed Chair, Janet Yellen. Geocosmics still say we can reverse here, but it is so early in a new primary cycle that has already shown such strength, that it may not work much this time, especially if today’s close is above daily resistance. Aggressive traders who went short need to set your stop-loss above daily resistance, especially on a close.

Solar-lunar periods coming up:

• July 27           131.9* (more often a crest)
• July 28-30      93.7
• July 31           33.9###
• Aug 3-4          62.5##
• Aug 5-6          146.5**
• Aug 7              81.6#

SPU (Sep S&P): Tuesday’s low was below daily support and the close was back above, which is a bullish trigger. And the close was above the daily trend indicator point for the 12th consecutive day, which means it remains in a trend run up. A close below 974.35 will downgrade it back to neutral. Daily support is 968.35-969.40. Daily resistance is 981.35-982.40. Bullish crossover zones remain in effect at 955.40-956.05, 939.95-943.00, 905.55-917.95, 879.80-882.60, 828.05-845.10, 775.75-797.05, 726.70-728.80 and 684.15-697.10. Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 1012.75-1074.45, 1156.15-1180, 1384.80-1388.55, 1456.15-1473.80, and 1540.35-1559.60 in the nearby contract. Friday and Monday’s report stated, “As with DJIA, we are looking for a high early next week… Aggressive traders only can look to sell this today or Tuesday. All others will be encouraged to buy a 2-8 day pullback.” Monday’s high held, but we couldn’t maintain the selling that started today. By the end of the day, it closed back above support in a bullish trigger. If it closes above resistance today, the move down is already over, as small as it was. But, that can happen at the start of a new primary cycle that has as much fuel as this one has shown. Yet if we don’t close above resistance today, we could still be in that 2-8 day decline zone.

NDU (Sep NASDAQ 100): Tuesday’s low was below daily support and the high was into daily resistance, and the close was back between the two, which is mixed. And the close was above the daily trend indicator point for the 13th consecutive day, which means it remains in a trend run up. A close below 1593 will downgrade it back to neutral. Prices again closed in a bearish crossover zone at 1591-1652. Others remain in effect at 1710-1714, 1749-1763, 1802-1817, 1824-1846, 1893-1898, 1912-1917, 1912-1976, 2018-2048 and 2209-2215. Bullish crossover zones remain in effect at 1454-1481, 1374-1377, 1310-1324, 1267-1280, 1213-1224, 1136-1137 and 1068-1082. Dly support is 1585-1589. Daily resistance is 1608-1611. yesterday’s report stated, “Aggressive traders could now look to sell short for a sharp 2-8 day decline, with a stop-loss on a close above daily resistance. We are going against the trend and I don’t believe this is a primary cycle crest, and hence it is for aggressive traders only. The idea is to see a 2-8 day decline, maybe back to 1540-1560.” Well, it touched resistance, but didn’t close above it, so the possibility is still there for a decline. But it didn’t fall either, which is a concern, unless it starts falling by Thursday.

EUU (Sep Euro): Tuesday’s high was into daily resistance and the close was below daily support, which is very bearish. And the close was below the daily trend indicator point after being above it 8 of the prior 9 days, which means it is downgrade back to neutral. Bullish crossover zones remain in effect at 1.3987-1.4044 and 1.3903-1.3927. Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 1.4270-1.4395 (that held the high again, and proved to be a good resistance zone), 1.4570-1.4581, 1.4794-1.4801, 1.4955-1.5199, 1.5455-1.5518, 1.5625-1.5689 and 1.5903-1.5904. Daily support is 1.4084-1.4100. Daily resistance is 1.4258-1.4275. As stated for Monday, “This market could go either way here. But since it formed a double top last week (and again early Tuesday), and this is within the critical reversal zone, we might be starting a decline to the primary cycle trough, back below 1.4000. Aggressive traders could look to sell short as long as prices do not take out that double top of 1.4294-1.4327.” You can set your stop-loss above 1.4337 or on a close above 1.4300, or even on a close over daily resistance. I would take 1/3 – 1/2 positions off now (already) because on Friday, we have the Sagittarius Factor, and prices could make a temporary low today or early Thursday, and then start right back up again.

TYU (Sep T-Notes): Tuesday’s low was into daily support, the high was above daily resistance, and the close was back between, which is mixed. And the close was below the daily trend indicator point for the 4th consecutive day, which means it is remains in a trend run down. A close above 116/05 today will upgrade it back to neutral. A bearish crossover zone recently formed at 116/24-116/30, and Tuesday’s high was to 116/23. Others remain in effect at 117/30-118/01, 123/15-123/19, 123/23-124/01, 125/08-125/15 and 127/12-127/13 in the nearby contract. Daily support is 115/20-115/22. Resistance is 116/18-116/20. As stated for Monday, “I think the 5-7 week major cycle crest is trying to form in this critical reversal zone. Aggressive traders may look for a low to buy into today or Tuesday, ideally below 116…. If long, set your stop-loss now on a close under 115/19.” Well, we rallied smartly from Monday’s low – and then sold off again. We didn’t quite get to the 25-day moving average (116/27), and we need to do that before we can confirm the major cycle low happened Monday. Sagittarius Factor comes up Friday, and usually that corresponds to an isolated low or high, +/- 1 trading day, from which prices then reverse 1.3-3 points. We may have to wait until then to get this market uplifted if Monday’s low is taken out. But for now, let’s hold on and see if that low will hold, as it happened right on the geocosmic critical reversal date.

SX (Nov Soybeans): Tuesday’s close was above daily resistance, which is bullish. And the close was above the daily tend indicator point after being below yesterday, which means it remains neutral. Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 980-986, 936-956, and 1028-1036. But a new bullish crossover zone just formed at 914-917. Another is present at 905-906 on a closing basis. Daily support is 915-917. Daily resistance is 935-937. Remain long, and now you can bring your stop-loss up to 899, or on a close under the new bullish crossover zone, depending on your risk allowance. We want to see prices above 950, and even close to 990, for this trade. Friday’s “Sagittarius Factor” could be good for this market too.

GCQ (Aug Gold): We will switch to December contract after Wednesday’s close. Tuesday’s close was below daily support, which is bearish. And the close was below the daily trend indicator point for the 1st time in 12 days, which means it is downgraded to neutral. A close above 949.50 will upgrade it back to trend run up. Bullish crossover zones remain present at 927.80-930.40, 874-875.50, 866.40-870, 817.60-826, 782.40-799 and 722.80-727.80. Daily support is 927.60-929.80. Resistance is 950.60-952.80. As stated for Monday, “My idea is that we could be topping out here temporarily, with a low in first two weeks of August, and then a big rally to follow. But I can’t tell if a decline here will be modest (above 935), or more substantial (back to 900 area).” Well, we fell hard Tuesday, down to 933.80 (the 935 area). It looked bad. But that is one level where we might actually find support now too, especially as Friday will be a “Sagittarius Factor day.” That’s usually bullish. But it is also first notice day for August, so that creates some downside pressure too. If you went short, I would be thinking of covering already as we already met our first downside target, and maybe even returning to the long side by Thursday.

SIU (Sep Silver): Tuesday’s close was into daily resistance, which is mostly bullish. And the close was above the daily trend indicator point for the 10th consecutive day, which means it remains in a trend run up. A close below 1383 will downgrade it to neutral. Bullish crossover zones remain in effect at 1295-1296, 1121-1154, 1061-1085 and 961-980. Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 1445-1460, 1518-1520, 1558-1607, 1673-1692, 1736-1740, 1836-1858 and 1923-1978. Daily support is 1379-1382. Daily resistance is 1413-1416. Monday’s report stated, “This is a reversal zone, and we made new highs Friday, which suggest a high could form today or early Tuesday. Lunar cycles agree. Aggressive traders could look to sell short, but here too I think a major cycle trough will be in the first two weeks of August, and that we want to buy, or already be long, going in to the heliocentric Mercury in Sagittarius period starting Aug 14 and lasting into August 26.” If short, you don’t want to see a close above 1420.

The solar-lunar cycles for the next few days are as follows (first column is reversal probability and second column is probability of a 3% or greater trading range for the day).

• July 27           112.0         115.5 (more often a crest, if anything)
• July 28-30      28.1###    99.0
• July 31           140.0*       132.0*
• Aug 3-4          111.4        146.5**
• Aug 5-6          104.8        102.9
• Aug 7              67.0#        96.0
   

Using this information properly: Support may represent favorable risk/reward places to buy if the trend is up. If prices trade below support, then have a close back above it, it is considered a bullish "trigger", and oftentimes represents a good buy signal. Resistance may represent favorable risk/reward places to go short if the trend is down. If prices trade above it, then have a weekly close back below, it is considered a bearish "trigger, and oftentimes a good sell signal.

MMA comments and trade recommendations are primarily for traders of commodity and futures contracts. They are provided mainly with "speculators" in mind. By its very nature, "speculation" means "willing to take risk of loss." Speculators" must be willing to accept the fact that they are going to have several losses, many more than say "investors". That is why they are "speculators." Speculators are typically right about 50% of the time, +/- 10%. The way "speculators" become profitable is not so much by high percentage of winning trades, but by controlling amount of loss on any given trade, so the average trade on winners is considerably more than the average trade on losing trades. MMA's comments can be of value to both speculators and investors. MMA's trade recommendations will be of potential value only to speculators. Those who take these trades need to be willing to adjust stop-losses, and even the trade itself, as the week unfolds, and dependent upon technical factors that will arise with each day's trading. There is no guarantee as to future accuracy or profitability. Each trader and reader trades at his or her own risk, and neither the author nor publisher assume any responsibility whatsoever for anyone's financial or commodity markets decisions. Futures or options trading are considered high risk.